Hey Everybody! I just wanted to let you all know that I will be permanently moving over to the The Way I See It (ryanwrasse.blogspot.com). See you there!
We're not taking GOP-spot offline, but I will probably not be posting on here as frequently.
Monday, December 4, 2006
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Terrorism Prevention
For those of you who know me, you know that I am a terrorism/religious studies junkie. By junkie I mean that I enjoy researching, studying and exploring why terrorists commit acts, and how religion affects political decisions. I just wanted to clear that up in case the Homeland Security Department, FBI or CIA is reading this right now...I'm not a terrorist.
As far as terrorism goes, I am a staunch supporter of a proactive (Bush Style) verses reactive (Clinton Style) policy when it comes to addressing terrorism. In the realm of proactive policy, terror experts rely on two forms of analysis: Trend and Scenario. Below, I pose one basic version of each form. Realistically, the governement has to rely on a little of both, but which would you rely on more heavily?
Trend
I predict that the frequency of terrorist bombings in Mid-East countries occupied by US forces will increase somewhat exponentially as time goes on. I do not think this hypothesis is as obviously proved as some may think. Obviously, US forces are at a greater risk just by the very nature of being there, but I think there is a direct correlation between occupying US forces, time, anti-American sentiment and bombings. I use bombings as my comparative tactic because that seems to be the weapon of choice, second only to traditional firearms and rocket propelled explosives. If I had the time, I would like to do a comparison of all three, but for time’s sake I’ll focus solely on bombings. Since it is so relevant, I will use Iraq as my test country and will include Iraqi government, military and police targets in my comparison since they are directly related to our occupation.
Data:
March 20, 2003 (date of invasion) through September 20, 2003- 12 terrorist attacks
September 20, 2003 through March 20, 2004- 46 terrorist attacks
March 20, 2004 through September 20, 2004- 69 terrorist attacks
September 20, 2004 through March 20, 2005- 271 terrorist attacks
March 20, 2005 through September 20, 2005- 280 terrorist attacks
September 20, 2005 through March 20, 2006- 388 terrorist attacks
March 20, 2006 through September 20, 2006- 584 terrorist attacks
There were 1, 650 terrorist attacks within Iraq from the beginning of US occupation until September 20, 2006.
The data speaks for itself and strongly affirms my hypothesis that terrorist acts (bombings) committed against US forces and new Iraqi government, military and police forces would increase somewhat exponentially as time went on.
The first six months was rather low because the invasion had just begun, forces had not yet occupied the country and the old Iraqi government was still in power. As the invasion and occupation slowly increased so did the attacks. The six month period where attacks jumped from 69 to 271 indicated a shift from local uprising to internationally led terrorism including the emergence of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s al Qaeda. A vast majority of attacks from that time period on were committed by al Qaeda or an affiliate group. I did not have time to compile the same data for Afghanistan, but the overall data for that country indicated the same as Iraq.
I think this trend is bound to increase as time goes on. The data does not does not indicate the attacks leveling off, nor does it even show that the attacks are slowing down. I see these numbers growing within the next five years. The major fuel that feeds this fire remains the occupation of US forces and as time goes on the anti-American sentiment grows. The only way to slow these attacks would either require US forces to leave Iraq, re-deploy or for the American government to freeze time. Don't get me wrong...I'm not proposing that we leave Iraq, I'm only addressing the question at hand: Will attacks go up or down while the US occupies Iraq? Not should we leave or stay?
Scenario
July 4, 2010
My family and I are making our way to 5th Avenue in New York City for the annual Fourth of July parade. It is so hot and sticky that I think I’m going to faint before I even make it to the parade route! My wife is pushing our 3 month old son in a stroller, bouncing over every crack in the sidewalk, as I carry our 4 year-old daughter block by block because she is too tired to walk on her own. My daughter loudly explains to me that she is tired, hot and thirsty all at the same time, as my wife echoes the same complaints. I turn around and squint as I look through the sun beams to find my wife’s face. I tell her that we will make a quick pit stop at a road side vendor to pick up a few bottles of water and a balloon for my daughter-this keeps her occupied until we make it to mid-town.
There are people everywhere! They are pushing and shoving, all with the excitement of the Fourth plastered on their faces. Everyone seems happy and excited for the parade to begin-the cheers are almost deafening. Cabs honk as they scream past us one after the other. We begin to cross the street when in the distance we hear sirens blaring. The noise is getting louder and the fire engines are getting closer. This is no unusual scene in New York City, so we continue to make our way up the street.
Thank goodness! We finally made it! We get up to the parade route just as the Snoopy float makes its way around the corner. I hoist my daughter onto my shoulders so she can get a better look as my wife attends to our crying baby. As time goes on, I get continually weak and beat down. I stare up at the sun and wonder why the heat must be so intense. My wife cannot seem to get the baby under control and my daughter tells me she is not feeling well again. We drink the rest of our water and keep watching the parade.
I begin to notice people around me suffering from what seems to be the same thing that is ailing me. Just then, an older man in front of me collapses as I, too, get dizzy and fall to the side walk-my daughter comes crashing down with me. It feels like I’m choking! I can hardly breathe! I turn over, thinking I had a heat stroke, to check on my daughter. As I turn around, I notice that the baby is no longer crying and my wife is crouched down by the stroller. I seem to forget about my daughter for a moment and reach for the stroller. I pull on my wife’s shoulder and she slumps lifelessly to the ground. I lunge for the stroller only to find my bright-eyed 3 month old boy blue in the face and motionless. Suddenly I remember about my fall and my daughter. I spin around to find her, but quickly lose consciousness…
Terrorists released poison sarin gas through the underground subway system...as the poison spread throughout the city, it slowly leaked through the vents along the streets and sidewalks killing thousands.
As far as terrorism goes, I am a staunch supporter of a proactive (Bush Style) verses reactive (Clinton Style) policy when it comes to addressing terrorism. In the realm of proactive policy, terror experts rely on two forms of analysis: Trend and Scenario. Below, I pose one basic version of each form. Realistically, the governement has to rely on a little of both, but which would you rely on more heavily?
Trend
I predict that the frequency of terrorist bombings in Mid-East countries occupied by US forces will increase somewhat exponentially as time goes on. I do not think this hypothesis is as obviously proved as some may think. Obviously, US forces are at a greater risk just by the very nature of being there, but I think there is a direct correlation between occupying US forces, time, anti-American sentiment and bombings. I use bombings as my comparative tactic because that seems to be the weapon of choice, second only to traditional firearms and rocket propelled explosives. If I had the time, I would like to do a comparison of all three, but for time’s sake I’ll focus solely on bombings. Since it is so relevant, I will use Iraq as my test country and will include Iraqi government, military and police targets in my comparison since they are directly related to our occupation.
Data:
March 20, 2003 (date of invasion) through September 20, 2003- 12 terrorist attacks
September 20, 2003 through March 20, 2004- 46 terrorist attacks
March 20, 2004 through September 20, 2004- 69 terrorist attacks
September 20, 2004 through March 20, 2005- 271 terrorist attacks
March 20, 2005 through September 20, 2005- 280 terrorist attacks
September 20, 2005 through March 20, 2006- 388 terrorist attacks
March 20, 2006 through September 20, 2006- 584 terrorist attacks
There were 1, 650 terrorist attacks within Iraq from the beginning of US occupation until September 20, 2006.
The data speaks for itself and strongly affirms my hypothesis that terrorist acts (bombings) committed against US forces and new Iraqi government, military and police forces would increase somewhat exponentially as time went on.
The first six months was rather low because the invasion had just begun, forces had not yet occupied the country and the old Iraqi government was still in power. As the invasion and occupation slowly increased so did the attacks. The six month period where attacks jumped from 69 to 271 indicated a shift from local uprising to internationally led terrorism including the emergence of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s al Qaeda. A vast majority of attacks from that time period on were committed by al Qaeda or an affiliate group. I did not have time to compile the same data for Afghanistan, but the overall data for that country indicated the same as Iraq.
I think this trend is bound to increase as time goes on. The data does not does not indicate the attacks leveling off, nor does it even show that the attacks are slowing down. I see these numbers growing within the next five years. The major fuel that feeds this fire remains the occupation of US forces and as time goes on the anti-American sentiment grows. The only way to slow these attacks would either require US forces to leave Iraq, re-deploy or for the American government to freeze time. Don't get me wrong...I'm not proposing that we leave Iraq, I'm only addressing the question at hand: Will attacks go up or down while the US occupies Iraq? Not should we leave or stay?
Scenario
July 4, 2010
My family and I are making our way to 5th Avenue in New York City for the annual Fourth of July parade. It is so hot and sticky that I think I’m going to faint before I even make it to the parade route! My wife is pushing our 3 month old son in a stroller, bouncing over every crack in the sidewalk, as I carry our 4 year-old daughter block by block because she is too tired to walk on her own. My daughter loudly explains to me that she is tired, hot and thirsty all at the same time, as my wife echoes the same complaints. I turn around and squint as I look through the sun beams to find my wife’s face. I tell her that we will make a quick pit stop at a road side vendor to pick up a few bottles of water and a balloon for my daughter-this keeps her occupied until we make it to mid-town.
There are people everywhere! They are pushing and shoving, all with the excitement of the Fourth plastered on their faces. Everyone seems happy and excited for the parade to begin-the cheers are almost deafening. Cabs honk as they scream past us one after the other. We begin to cross the street when in the distance we hear sirens blaring. The noise is getting louder and the fire engines are getting closer. This is no unusual scene in New York City, so we continue to make our way up the street.
Thank goodness! We finally made it! We get up to the parade route just as the Snoopy float makes its way around the corner. I hoist my daughter onto my shoulders so she can get a better look as my wife attends to our crying baby. As time goes on, I get continually weak and beat down. I stare up at the sun and wonder why the heat must be so intense. My wife cannot seem to get the baby under control and my daughter tells me she is not feeling well again. We drink the rest of our water and keep watching the parade.
I begin to notice people around me suffering from what seems to be the same thing that is ailing me. Just then, an older man in front of me collapses as I, too, get dizzy and fall to the side walk-my daughter comes crashing down with me. It feels like I’m choking! I can hardly breathe! I turn over, thinking I had a heat stroke, to check on my daughter. As I turn around, I notice that the baby is no longer crying and my wife is crouched down by the stroller. I seem to forget about my daughter for a moment and reach for the stroller. I pull on my wife’s shoulder and she slumps lifelessly to the ground. I lunge for the stroller only to find my bright-eyed 3 month old boy blue in the face and motionless. Suddenly I remember about my fall and my daughter. I spin around to find her, but quickly lose consciousness…
Terrorists released poison sarin gas through the underground subway system...as the poison spread throughout the city, it slowly leaked through the vents along the streets and sidewalks killing thousands.
Turkey Day
Well, I just got back from my first vacation from work and school in over 8 months...it was GREAT! The turkey tasted good, but the deer hunt was less than successful. I shouldn't say that-we ended up with 6 deer out of our 5 guy camp. Only two bucks (both small). Everyone made it home safe and sound, though.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
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